UN Resolutions 242 and 338 have been the basis for negotiations in the Arab-Israeli conflict since they were passed unanimously decades ago, the first after the 1967 conflict, and the second after the Yom Kippur War in October of 73’. They are monuments to legalese, with hours of arguments devoted to a comma, or a “the”. I suppose this is because negotiators figured haggling over a word, signified hope accord could be reached on broader issues as well.
At their core, the resolutions translate simply to land for peace, peace pertaining to recognition of Israel’s right to exist. The land in question is territory taken by Israel after routing Arab forces in both 67’ and 73’. Specifically, at issue is the Gaza Strip and West Bank. The Sinai bordering Egypt and the Golan Heights bordering Syria were also part of the mix, but the Sinai was ceded back as part of the Camp David Accords in 1978 and Israel, refusing to give up the strategic advantage of the Golan Heights, formerly annexed the area in 81’ even though no country approved the action. But the crux of the issue has always been the West Bank, or as Israeli hard liners, most prominantly represented by the Likud Party and current Prime Minister Bibi Netenyahu, refer to it… Judea and Samaria.
The dispute between the Palestinian leadership, fragmented by the refusal of the radical Hamas wing to accept much of anything less than open hostilities, and Israel is as intractable as any issue in human history. Every layer one pulls back reveals more obstacles. But make no mistake, without at least the idea of a pathway to agreement, regardless how distant, the region would explode, with moderates and democrats becoming endangered species.
Likud is an extreme party, whose vision of the West Bank has never waivered from its status as a rightful Jewish homeland, come what may. Whatever generosity of spirit a Likud government exihibited at the negotiating table on other questions, like Gaza or the Sinai, they have never seriously considered concessions on the West Bank. Likud strategy since Begin in the late 70s has been the same: get enough settlements in place to make it politically untenable for any Israeli government to reverse course as part of a deal. This ambition has been at odds with every US Administration since Johnson. Even W gave lip service to unconstrained settlement as an obstacle to peace. Obama recognized it for what it was and took Netenyahu to task, drawing fire up to and past the line of being dubbed an anti-semite. Yet and still, there can be no argument that, if no Israeli government can negotiate away settled land on the West Bank as part of a peace deal, then there is no deal left to make.
Complicating all of this even more is the status of Jerusalem, which both Jews and Muslims hold as a sacred city. When Israel took control of East Jerusalem in 1967, its soldiers sobbed at the Wailing Wall, and General Moshe Dayan exclaimed that Jewish prophecy had been fulfilled. The status of the city has become as significant as any symbol in the Arab-Israeli conflict, with Muslims just as entrenched about their religious bonds and obligation to secure them. While Israelis declare Jerusalem to be their capital, foreign governments have wisely kept their embassies in Tel Aviv, fully understanding how volatile the issue is and cognizant that to locate in Jerusalem would abandon any pretense as an honest broker…. until today.
That Trump knows precious little about the conflict is obvious; the gibberish he spews on the subject is near unintelligible. When he declared his ambition to “get a deal” and sent his son-in-law – who had zero experience or qualification for anything more than visiting as a tourist – things went surreal. Appointing his bankruptcy lawyer Ambassador was another sign that this Administration had a credibility problem. But when Trump declared that the US would locate its embassy in East Jerusalem, he ended the US days as lead mediator in the region.
It’s hard to think of an issue his wretched core cared less about. Even Netenyahu, who had Trump pegged as a useful tool from the outset, mentioned it only in passing, focusing instead on abrogation of the Iran nuclear deal. But Trump has decided his political brand will be checking off the boxes on declarations he vomited at campaign rallies. He couldn’t wait to make the announcement. Of course, if he had any advisors worth a White House parking pass, they would have blasted the move as idiotic and unnecessary. But the chances these days of any competent counsel at 1600 Pennsylvania is slim and none, and slim never did get an office.
So today our POTUS is proudly tweeting how he “accomplished” what others couldn’t. And he has dispatched a genuine anti-semite to the scene of the crime as our country’s theological emissary to bless the event. Meanwhile, Palestinian kids by the dozens will die today lashing out at another perceived outrage. Just in case any moderate Palestinian holds out hope the US can still be an honest broker, the White House made clear it is unreasonable to ask Israel for restraint in addressing the protests because Hamas is solely responsibe. The Trump approach to Mideast peace vis a vis the Palestinians is just say thank you or else.
For its part, Israel has no carrots left to offer, but Netenyahu and Likud much preferred the stick in the first place. Like Trump, who he already knows how to play like a favorite woodwind, Bibi never met a wall he didn’t like. And also like Trump, he views democracy as the problem, a good way to end up in jail. To Bibi’s eyes a security state has a very nice ring to it. Meanwhile, the Trump faithful are also all for it; they’ll take a Jew over an A-Rab any day…at least for now. BC