To absorb MAGA’s insane reverberations in defeat is to appreciate the calamitous specter America and the world would have confronted had Trump prevailed. Any satisfaction to be had viewing history’s sorest loser convulse in tormented pettiness is fully muted by the understanding he is never more dangerous than when attempting to rebrand yet another abject failure, selling his base on inane lies that both excuse his defeat, while priming the pump for maintaining future relevance. As a private citizen the formula was essentially the same, but the results were far more benign. Stiffing creditors and investors is one thing, unleashing vengeance from the White House quite another. The gravest danger to world stability sits in the East Wing tweeting out grievance to his zombie multitudes. Near two months remain available for Trump to do his worst, certain that however he lashes out, the wretched core will cheer him on, as GOP cowards abide it with their characteristic silence.
More brazenly corrupt pardons and executive mandates are givens, and few expect Trump or his servile dead-enders to cooperate in any constructive manner with Biden transition teams. However, possible foreign intrigue is what should primarily inhibit our slumber until Inauguration Day, particularly with regard to Iran. Proactive military strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities have tempted Trump throughout his term, now they may appeal to his unhinged desire for retribution he thinks an “unfair” defeat entitles him to, leaving Biden the quagmire he deserves. Surely Pompeo is hissing in his ear about how rejoining the Obama nuclear pact will be Biden’s first order of business. Why not make that impossible?
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – otherwise known as the Iran Nuclear Deal – was finalized in July of 2015 and signed off on by all five of the UN Security Council’s permanent members, as well as the European Union (P5 + 1). While the pact could never be called perfect, it was in fact a significant diplomatic achievement. Both sides achieved the goals they sought negotiating the deal, a win-win result.
Iran resolved long-standing financial grievances in place since the Iranian Revolution, while finally escaping crippling coordinated economic sanctions the pursuit of its nuclear ambitions had produced. Meanwhile, the deal gave US and NATO a clear set of metrics to gauge the drawdown of Iran’s entire nuclear program. Caps on areas such as uranium stockpiles and installed centrifuges could be monitored in order to verify Tehran was upholding its end of the bargain. Most informed parties agreed it would prevent Iran from acquiring a deployable nuclear device for at least ten years.
In America, GOP opposition to the agreement was a given, since the party’s policy was literally to dispute every initiative the Obama Administration conceived. It even included a seditious show horse letter signed by 47 Republican senators reminding Tehran of the obvious, that the agreement didn’t require ratification, while making clear the GOP would do everything it could to undermine it. Where once the US brand boasted politics “stopped at the water’s edge,” 2016 Republican presidential aspirants fought among themselves about who most loathed the JCPOA, competing to make up the bigger lie about how Obama and John Kerry paid off the Iranians with suitcases of cash. The future President would not be topped in that department.
In Israel, political opposition was a bit more bipartisan. Yet and still, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Likud party he headed left no room at all for anything but visceral opposition to the deal. It’s notable, however, that the Israeli national security community was far less concerned than the country’s politicians when it came to assessing the threat constituted by the pact’s specifics. Indeed, rightist attacks of the JPCOA in both the US and Israel most often skipped over the actual details enumerated in the deal’s provisions to simply link all the other elements of Iran’s foreign policy, from supporting terrorism to meddling in Iraq, as reasons enough for condemning any form of bi- or multilateral cooperation. Thus, the goal and terms for achieving it are irrelevant, no deal should have even been contemplated in the first place.
There was never any doubt Trump would abandon the whole enterprise, with the shortest of shrift given to allies, who had backed the deal despite domestic political heat. Even less concern was afforded the question of how such an abrupt u-turn might damage US credibility. In fact, Europe has resisted the Trump Administration’s demands for a return to draconian sanctions, holding out hope American voters would make a change in 2020. That patience now seems prudent, but 54 days remain, an eternity within the calendar of rabid Trumpist vindictiveness.
Of course, Bibi Netanyahu understands the door will be closed on January 21, and he’s never had a problem taking advantage of Trump’s reckless indifference to US or global stability. While he was one of the first foreign leaders to congratulate Biden on his victory, no doubt hurting the Donald’s feelings, he won’t sweat for a minute manipulating Trump’s sociopathy to perform his dirty work in Iran. To Bibi that’s just business. Sorry Joe, what was I to do?
On the ground right now, things couldn’t be more combustible. First, after initially exhibiting restraint at Trump’s unilateral edict, with faint hope allied pressure could make a difference, Iran has reinvigorated its nuclear program. Indeed, the International Atomic Energy Agency just confirmed Iran’s stockpile of low-enriched uranium is now more than ten times what it was reduced to in line with JCPOA requirements. Worse, advanced centrifuges are being added apace to speed enrichment activity. Second, yesterday’s murder of prominent Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, which Iran immediately accused Israel of carrying out, ups the ante dramatically at a critical juncture. Coming on the heels of the US assassination of Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani back in January, yesterday’s killing puts Iran in a position of losing face throughout the region. There is no doubt at all it will respond in kind, perhaps on multiple fronts. Certainly, were this provocation followed up with anything else substantial – say a targeted US air attack on enrichment facilities -there is no telling how far Tehran may be willing to push things.
Meanwhile, a sizable contingent of US military assets is heading to the area as we speak, ostensibly to support the withdrawal from Afghanistan Trump ordered as part of his post-election scorched-earth pique. No doubt Iranian forces are on highest alert as a perfect storm for disastrous miscalculation begins to take shape. Add to all this a Twitter freak digesting his historic failure of a Presidency circling the drain, not to mention a Secretary of State who really does believe bombing mullahs back to the Stone Age is God’s work, and, well, you get the picture. These last four years may have felt like twenty, but the last 54 days will surely feel longer still. Happy Holidays. BC